This afternoon Senators Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo) will introduce legislation to “force Congress to dramatically cut spending over 10 years”. From the Senator’s website:
At a time when many families have been forced to tighten their pocketbooks, Congress must also learn to do the same. This bill isn’t just about cutting back this year or next year; it’s about instilling permanent discipline to keep spending at a responsible level,” McCaskill said.
The Commitment to American Prosperity Act, the “CAP Act,” would:
(1) Put in place a 10-year glide path to cap all spending – discretionary and mandatory – to a declining percentage of the country’s gross domestic product, eventually bringing spending down from the current level, 24.7 percent of GDP, to the 40-year historical level of 20.6 percent, and
(2) If Congress fails to meet the annual cap, authorize the Office of Management and Budget to make evenly distributed, simultaneous cuts throughout the federal budget to bring spending down to the pre-determined level. Only a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress could override the binding cap …
I’m very pessimistic about this, for many reasons. Procedurally, the Act only institutes a new budgetary point of order, which can be overridden with super-majority votes in both houses. That is, the Act doesn’t compel anyone to act fiscally responsibly unless they’re inclined to do so. If we had such restrained legislators, a cap wouldn’t be necessary to begin with. Currently the House can override budgetary points of order with a simple majority vote, so this is an improvement, but not one I expect to have serious results.
The technical aspects of the Cap Act are similarly merit-less. First, the baselines are all skewed; why should we accept 20.6% of GDP spending as the new ‘normal’? Historically, Federal receipts average right around 18% of GDP, so locking in 20% would still put us on a trajectory towards systemic deficits. Given that we’re starting from a baseline where Federal debt rapidly approaches 100% of GDP, this isn’t a responsible plan to reign in spending. Similarly, the “lookback GDP” guidelines will count 2009, 2010, and 2011 spending, which has already exploded far beyond what is fiscally sustainable, or historically precedented. The “glide path” isn’t a serious measure of fiscal sustainability; it places us, in just five years, at the same debt-to-gdp ratio that trigged an economic meltdown in Greece last year. So the bill doesn’t set reasonable baselines, it doesn’t do anything to address the deficit, and if Matt’s work with similar TELs in the states holds, high-income economies like ours tend to use spending caps as excuses to grow spending beyond the levels they otherwise would.
There are some technical merits, but they’re merely cosmetic. Bringing Social Security back ‘on-budget’ is a good start, but this bill still leaves massive loopholes for ‘emergency spending’, which the New York Times called a new way of political life six years ago. That trend hasn’t changed one iota since; if anything it’s gotten worse. A unified Democratic Congress couldn’t pass any budget last year. It’s one of the few constitutional powers actually entrusted to the Congress, and they failed. Which leads to my separation-of-powers concerns with this legislation. It’s unclear from a first reading, but where is the authority for Congress to entrust sequestration power with OMB, an executive branch agency?
Finally, there are massive political concerns with the legislation. It seems poised as a cover for fiscally irresponsible co-sponsors like McCaskill and John McCain (who both supported TARP and the GM Bailout; McCaskill also voted for Obamacare while McCain has his own big government medical plan to push) to claim the mantle of fiscal responsibility. We’ve already seen that movie, and it was terrible the first time.
In sum, I don’t see any reason the bill would restrain spending to a responsible or sustainable level. The bill has some good ideas, but they’re wandering in a wilderness of bad ones. The impulse is good, the execution is terrible.
Note: Sorry a rough draft went up on the RSS feed earlier, WordPress is a cruel mistress sometimes.