How will state governments recover from the catastrophic collapse in revenues? According to Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, that all depends on whether states want to face up to the caus — the happy (and now unsupportable) spending binge of the 1990s, when states increased spending an average of 6% a year.
Writing in today’s Wall Street Journal, Governor Daniels estimates it will take GDP growth twice the historical average of 3.49% to return state tax revenues to their previous long-run trend line by 2012.
And even then, revenue recovery may not happen. Consumer spending is down. Americans may have moved into a renewed era of saving. That means less sales tax revenues for states.
The choice before states: more taxes, or less spending, and permanently smaller government.
State governments will continue to face hard choices: slash services, union benefits, or privatize what the state cannot support.
The Journal also reports on what one-day employee furloughs look like in the states: A 3 hour wait for drivers license renewals in California, no birth certificates available in Wisconsin, the shutdown of shooting ranges and visitor centers in Michigan, no food stamp applications filed in Maine, and fewer traffic patrols on Maryland highways.
There is a bright spot in this exercise: furloughs force efficiencies. When California began DMV furloughs in January, 473,000 people chose to renew online, an increase of 32%.