Tag Archives: West Coast

Decreasing congestion with driverless cars

Traffic is aggravating. Especially for San Francisco residents. According to Texas A&M Transportation Institute, traffic congestion in the San Francisco-Oakland CA area costs the average auto commuter 78 hours per year in extra travel time, $1,675 for their travel time delays, and an extra 33 gallons of gas compared to free-flow traffic conditions. That means the average commuter spends more than three full days stuck in traffic each year. Unfortunately for these commuters, a potential solution to their problems just left town.

Last month, after California officials told Uber to stop its pilot self-driving car program because it lacked the necessary state permits for autonomous driving, Uber decided to relocate the program from San Francisco to Phoenix, Arizona. In an attempt to alleviate safety concerns, these self-driving cars are not yet driverless, but they do have the potential to reduce the number of cars on the road. Other companies like Google, Tesla, and Ford have expressed plans to develop similar technologies, and some experts predict that completely driverless cars will be on the road by 2021.

Until then, however, cities like San Francisco will continue to suffer from the most severe congestion in the country. Commuters in these cities experience serious delays, higher gasoline usage, and lost time behind the wheel. If you live in any of these areas, you are probably very familiar with the mind-numbing effect of sitting through sluggish traffic.

It shouldn’t be surprising then that these costs could culminate into a larger problem for economic growth. New Mercatus research finds that traffic congestion can significantly harm economic growth and concludes with optimistic predictions for how autonomous vehicle usage could help.

Brookings Senior Fellow Clifford Winston and Yale JD candidate Quentin Karpilow find significant negative effects of traffic congestion on the growth rates of California counties’ gross domestic product (GDP), employment, wages, and commodity freight flows. They find that a 10% reduction in congestion in a California urban area increases both job and GDP growth by roughly 0.25% and wage growth to increase by approximately 0.18%.

This is the first comprehensive model built to understand how traffic harms the economy, and it builds on past research that has found that highway congestion leads to slower job growth. Similarly, congestion in West Coast ports, which occurs while dockworkers and marine terminal employers negotiate contracts, has caused perishable commodities to go bad, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point reduction in GDP during the first quarter of 2015.

There are two main ways to solve the congestion problem; either by reducing the number of cars on the road or by increasing road capacity. Economists have found that the “build more roads” method in application has actually been quite wasteful and usually only induces additional highway traffic that quickly fills the new road capacity.

A common proposal for the alternative method of reducing the number of cars on the road is to implement congestion pricing, or highway tolls that change based on the number of drivers using the road. Increasing the cost of travel during peak travel times incentivizes drivers to think more strategically about when they plan their trips; usually shifting less essential trips to a different time or by carpooling. Another Mercatus study finds that different forms of congestion pricing have been effective at reducing traffic congestion internationally in London and Stockholm as well as for cities in Southern California.

The main drawback of this proposal, however, is the political difficulty of implementation, especially with interstate highways that involve more than one jurisdiction to approve it. Even though surveys show that drivers generally change their mind towards supporting congestion pricing after they experience the lower congestion that results from tolling, getting them on board in the first place can be difficult.

Those skeptical of congestion pricing, or merely looking for a less challenging policy to implement, should look forward to the new growing technology of driverless cars. The authors of the recent Mercatus study, Winston and Karpilow, find that the adoption of autonomous vehicles could have large macroeconomic stimulative effects.

For California specifically, even if just half of vehicles became driverless, this would create nearly 350,000 additional jobs, increase the state’s GDP by $35 billion, and raise workers’ earnings nearly $15 billion. Extrapolating this to the whole country, this could add at least 3 million jobs, raise the nation’s annual growth rate 1.8 percentage points, and raise annual labor earnings more than $100 billion.

What would this mean for the most congested cities? Using Winston and Karpilow’s estimates, I calculated how reduced congestion from increased autonomous car usage could affect Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that include New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, and the DC area. The first chart shows the number of jobs that would have been added in 2011 if 50% of motor vehicles had been driverless. The second chart shows how this would affect real GDP per capita, revealing that the San Francisco MSA would have the most to gain, but with the others following close behind.

jobsadd_autonomousvehicles realgdp_autonomousvehicles

As with any new technology, there is uncertainty with how exactly autonomous cars will be fully developed and integrated into cities. But with pilot programs already being implemented by Uber in Pittsburgh and nuTonomy in Singapore, it is becoming clear that the technology’s efficacy is growing.

With approximately $1,332 GDP per capita and 45,318 potential jobs on the table for the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area, it is a shame that San Francisco just missed a chance to realize some of these gains and to be at the forefront of driving progress in autonomous vehicle implementation.

D.C. tries again to protect taxi industry from competition

Last year, the D.C. City Council threatened to impose regulations that would have effectively barred Uber, the popular sedan-hailing car company, from the D.C. market. In a surprising show of candor, the proposed legislation admitted that the goal was to ensure that the politically powerful taxi lobby didn’t lose any business. Public reaction was swift and negative and the council eventually relented, letting Uber into the market.

While many were celebrating, I played the part of the skeptic, noting that Uber’s gain seemed to have come at the expense of other start-up transportation companies. Writing in the Washington Examiner, I noted:

But when you dig into the legislation, it appears that the council earned Uber’s praise by — you guessed it — finding a way to privilege Uber. That’s because the legislation mandates that “public vehicles-for-hire using a digital dispatch service shall be licensed.”

As tech reporter Ryan Lawler points out, the licensing requirement erects a barrier to entry for other businesses. SideCar, for example, is a West Coast service that, according to its website, “instantly connects people with extra space in their cars with those who need to get from one place to another.” It is, they say, “like a quick and hassle-free carpool.” Since these instant carpoolers are obviously not licensed, they’d be illegal in DC. That’s handy for Uber. The company managed to cross the regulatory velvet rope and, alongside taxis, obtain access to a lucrative market. But once inside, Uber put the rope back up.

I’m sorry to say that my skepticism was warranted. This morning, WAMU’s Martin Di Caro reported:

The commission that regulates all vehicle-for-hire services in the District of Columbia once again finds itself at odds with a tech start-up.  After battling the sedan service Uber in 2012 before creating a sedan class license to allow the company to operate legally in the District, the Taxicab Commission has notified SideCar management that its drivers may not pick up passengers in D.C. without the proper licenses and vehicle tags.

“Individuals who join this rideshare operation must be licensed taxicab or limousine drivers in the District of Columbia and must have vehicles that have L tags,” said Commission Chairman Ron Linton.

You can listen to the full story here.

Step one in obtaining government privilege is to have a seat at the table

The weekend edition of the WSJ featured an interview with Uber founder Travis Kalanick by Andy Kessler. It offers a nice lesson in how regulatory bodies can get captured by incumbent firms. In city after city Kalanick and his team encountered regulations and regulators intent on privileging the established taxi and luxury limousine industries.

The interview touches a bit on the Uber experience with the DC Council, (which I first wrote about back in July):

…the city tried to change the law—with what were actually called Uber Amendments—to set a floor on the company’s rates at five times those charged by taxis. “The rationale, in the frickin’ amendment, you can look it up, said ‘We need to keep the town-car business from competing with the taxi industry,’ ” Mr. Kalanick says. “It’s anticompetitive behavior. If a CEO did that kind of stuff—you’d be in jail.”

In the end, the city backed away from its proposal, allowing Uber to operate without the requirement that it charge 5 times what its competitors were charging. So far so good. Unfortunately, however, the legislation that gave Uber access to the DC market also mandated that any firm wishing to serve that market be licensed. As I wrote in The Washington Examiner in December, this adds one more chapter to the story:

As tech reporter Ryan Lawler points out, the licensing requirement erects a barrier to entry for other businesses. SideCar, for example, is a West Coast service that, according to its website, “instantly connects people with extra space in their cars with those who need to get from one place to another.” It is, they say, “like a quick and hassle-free carpool.” Since these instant carpoolers are obviously not licensed, they’d be illegal in DC. That’s handy for Uber. The company managed to cross the regulatory velvet rope and, alongside taxis, obtain access to a lucrative market. But once inside, Uber put the rope back up.

The incident raises questions about how much responsibility firms bear for the privileges they enjoy. I honestly don’t believe Mr. Kalanick set out to obtain a privilege for his firm. The problem is that once he had safely passed through the maze of red tape, he hardly had an incentive to ensure that anyone following him got through. And, of course, he even stood to gain if no one did. The simple fact is that when the deal was hashed out, Mr. Kalanick was at the table while the folks at SideCar (and hundreds, if not thousands of other would-be startups) were not. This is how regulatory capture works.